NBA

[B.E.]

Wow, Lakers hire JJ Redick as head coach. Good for him. He’s another former player with no coaching experience, though. It will be interesting to see how he fares. He certainly seems cut out for it.

[Kapitan]

Jun 20, 2024 22:43:47 GMT B.E. said:

Wow, Lakers hire JJ Redick as head coach. Good for him. He’s another former player with no coaching experience, though. It will be interesting to see how he fares. He certainly seems cut out for it.

I think it's a strange decision for a team that's always chasing titles: asking proven, veteran superstars to trust in a first-time coach. And it didn't work out last time, and that was with a first-time head coach who had excelled as an assistant for years. This time it's a guy who has never coached at all. Redick does seem capable of it, don't get me wrong. It's just a pretty big promotion from podcasting former player to head coach of one of the two most legendary NBA franchises.

That said, the NBA doesn't exactly value experience with head coaches to the extent it used to--and you could argue it doesn't value head coaches, period. The dollar figures don't back that up, because they're being paid astronomical sums. But the willingness to experiment with hires, and the willingness to fire them quickly, do.

Yesterday we had our first trade of the offseason, too: Josh Giddey from OKC to CHI for Alex Caruso. In part that seems to indicate CHI doesn't really expect Lonzo Ball back, or at least doesn't expect much from him if he returns.

[Kapitan]

Happy NBA Draft Day!

I hate that it's now spread over two days (at least considering they didn't add another round or two), but I will still enjoy both days. I like the NBA draft far more than the NFL, as I know many more players.

And how about those New York Knicks? They gave up (nonguaranteed contract) Bojan Bogdanovic but, more importantly, five 1sts, a 1st pick swap, and a 2nd for Mikal Bridges and a 2nd. This probably means they aren't going to be able to retain OG Anunoby and/or Isaiah Hartestein, or they may look to trade Julius Randle and/or Mitchell Robinson. But the Villanova foursome are back together (and here's hoping they reacquire Ryan Arcidiacono), and Bridges should be a HUGE help to Jalen Brunson in shouldering the offensive load. I actually like Bridges as a kind of cross between Bogdanovic and Anunoby: he's a very good wing defender AND a very good shooter.

Brooklyn is clearly going all-in on tanking the next two years, as they turned around and gave up two 1sts and two 1st swaps to Houston to reacquire their own '25 and '26 1sts ('25 had been a pick swap, so for sure Houston would have taken it next year). Those drafts are expected to be more talented at the top. I look for Brooklyn to unload other older and more expensive players (e.g. Cam Johnson) and really really suck this year.

[Sheriff John Stone]

Jun 26, 2024 12:21:01 GMT Kapitan said:

Happy NBA Draft Day!

I hate that it's now spread over two days (at least considering they didn't add another round or two), but I will still enjoy both days. I like the NBA draft far more than the NFL, as I know many more players.

So, who should the 76ers draft?

[Kapitan]

Jun 26, 2024 19:04:22 GMT Sheriff John Stone said:

Jun 26, 2024 12:21:01 GMT Kapitan said:

Happy NBA Draft Day!

I hate that it's now spread over two days (at least considering they didn't add another round or two), but I will still enjoy both days. I like the NBA draft far more than the NFL, as I know many more players.

So, who should the 76ers draft?

It's a tough draft to predict, because it's relatively deep but relatively flat as opposed to some obviously top-tier prospects, then some solid but low-ceiling guys or big-risk/big-reward guys, then the foreign or older guys late. I dont' see a single guy I'd say WILL be an all-star, ever. But there are quite a few going from the top of the draft into the 2nd round who I could imagine as potentially being all-stars, as well as quite a few guys I'm pretty sure will be solid players.

Beyond that, Philly is especially tough to guess because they have almost literally no roster, but a ton of cap space. And we don't really know what they're going to do with it. Do you pick a shooter? Probably not if you're signing Paul George, but yes if you're trading for Jimmy Butler. Etc. There is also talk they'll trade the pick.

But here are a few guys I think are conceivable who may be around at 16.

Shooters (all three were freshmen last year):
Jared McCain, 6-3 combo guard of Duke, is one of the best shooters in this draft. Actually he'd pair well with Maxey, because he's not a true PG, not the quickest guy, but he's smart and a deadeye shooter. 

Johnny Furphy, 6-9 SF out of Kansas, is thin and weak but a good shooter and an energizer bunny on the court. He runs and runs, either getting open for 3s or cutting to the hoop. Aggressive, too, but has to bulk up.

Ja'Kobe Walter, 6-6 SG out o Baylor, is maybe the best physical speciment of the three, but he has the least in his game. But what I love is, he's big, strong, athletic, and he runs HARD off the ball to catch and shoot 3s. He's not just a spot-up guy, he catches on the move and shoots like Reggie Miller used to (but not at that level). He doesn't do a lot else yet. 

If they want to go the more versatile routes, Cody Williams (6-8 freshman wing out of Colorado) is OKC'd Jalen Williams's brother and can do a bit of everything; while Ron Holland is a 6-8 wing out of D League Ignite who is a relentless defender and energizer with a great physique but in need of improving his handle and jumper.

Those are a few guys who might be there who they may want to consider. Kyle Filipowski, the 6-10 soph F/C out of Duke, would be a skilled big man who might fit with a variety of other players depending on what they do.

[Kapitan]

You're going to like McCain, Sheriff John Stone.

[Sheriff John Stone]

Jun 27, 2024 1:54:09 GMT Kapitan said:

You're going to like McCain, Sheriff John Stone .

Well, you nailed that pick. Yes, I'm very much looking forward to the Maxey-MCain tandem. M & M...

[Kapitan]

Sheriff John Stone, Adem Bona (assuming he stays...2nd round picks get shifted around often) is a nice pick for the 76ers. He's not a skilled guy, but he's a VERY athletic and energetic guy. He would be valuable to back up a healthy Embiid, just to provide size and muscle, block shots, catch and dunk lobs, etc. If or when Embiid is hurt, I don't know that he's quite so useful, because my guess is he'd foul out every single game if he started! But as a project, he's really worthwhile, and his hustle is useful immediately.

[Sheriff John Stone]

Jun 27, 2024 21:14:19 GMT Kapitan said:

Sheriff John Stone , Adem Bona (assuming he stays...2nd round picks get shifted around often) is a nice pick for the 76ers. He's not a skilled guy, but he's a VERY athletic and energetic guy. He would be valuable to back up a healthy Embiid, just to provide size and muscle, block shots, catch and dunk lobs, etc. If or when Embiid is hurt, I don't know that he's quite so useful, because my guess is he'd foul out every single game if he started! But as a project, he's really worthwhile, and his hustle is useful immediately.

I admit that I'm not familiar with Adem Bona, but I'm sure the 76ers will welcome more athleticism, energy, and hustle...which was evident in the Knicks' series.

[Kapitan]

The Wolves are getting a lot of praise for how they handled the past two days' draft. I am trying to be optimistic, or at least open-minded, but my initial reaction is one of disappointment and skepticism.

We came into the draft with a terrible salary situation: we are expected to be not just over the cap (as most teams are most years), not just into the luxury tax, but $6.5 million into the "2nd apron," a new feature of the league's CBA just beginning this year. It is HARSHLY punitive. It means teams cannot use the mid-level exceptions to sign free agents, thus can only sign minimum-contract free agents. It means teams cannot aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send out one player each. It means teams cannot send out cash in trades as incentive, a common move. It means teams have to use trade exceptions (e.g., if you trade a $10 million salary player to a team for a pick, or to absorb into that team's cap space, you receive what amounts to a free $10 million exception; you could later use it to acquire a $10 million player in trade even if you're over the cap) within the season they get them, rather than for their typical one-year duration. It means teams are slightly limited in terms of how far into the future they can trade picks compared to other teams. And it imposes massive financial penalties for every dollar spent over various thresholds. Basically, we're paying fines of 3-4x the amount of salary on tens of millions of dollars.

In other words, it is not a comfortable place. It will be very hard for Minnesota to keep improving--and this doesn't take into account that we'd already traded away most of the next 6 years in first-rounders and first-round pick swaps for Gobert.

So, what happened and why don't I like it?

We came into this draft with two picks: #27 and #37. This draft was not great on star power, but it was deep on potential rotation players. I felt like if we drafted well at these two spots, we could get two young, talented guys who might be able to serve bench roles in these coming years--a valuable thing considering our future lack of picks and lack of ability to add talent otherwise.

Our first move was to trade away two more future 1st-round picks! We did a pick-swap on our 2030 1st rounder, and gave away our 2031 1st rounder (the furthest out we can send; we cannot send another 1st until two years from now, when we can send our 2033) for the rights to Kentucky freshman combo guard Rob Dillingham, who went #8 to San Antonio (for us).

Unlike many evaluators, I didn't really like Dillingham. I had him as my #16 player overall. On the positive side, he's VERY quick, shifty, and he can get buckets whether shooting it from 3 or off the dribble. Some people say he's got some Kyrie in him (which isn't a compliment in my opinion, but I get the point). But he's very slight, I believe 160 lbs and barely 6-1. His shooting form is inconsistent and odd, often not squared up and with his legs close together. He is a willing passer, but clearly not an instinctive or natural one. He is, and increasingly will be, abused as a defender. Meaning to me, he looks like a classic, shoot-first combo guard sparkplug type. I see him and think the best-case scenario is a smaller Lou Williams or Monta Ellis. These are guys who had fine careers, but who are not the kinds of players you'd give up multiple future 1sts for. I don't believe he will be a (quality) PG of the future to succeed Mike Conley. He might come in and be able to get buckets early on, though inefficiently and not capitalizing on his teammates ... but that would just alienate him from them, make him the anti-Conley. So I don't really like that trade--but am trying to be open-minded about it.

We used #27 on Terrance Shannon Jr, a SG/SF type from Illinois. I've had a chance to see him several times since he's in the B10 these past few years (after starting at Texas Tech). He's an athletic, do-it-all kind of guy. Why was he available so late? One reason is that while he's good at everything, he's one of those college players about whom you're not sure he's good enough at anything. In college, he was big, strong, and fast for a wing; in the pros, he's a typical wing. He's a good shooter; he's not a great shooter. He, when locked in, was a good college defender; in the pros, he'll have to be locked in constantly to be worth playing, because as I said his offense isn't good enough to stand out in the NBA. What's more, he dropped because of rape allegations. Thankfully he was acquitted and even testified in his own defense which is very rare. He was adamant all along that he was innocent, and it seems he was. But the charges did hurt his season and draft stock. I'm not down on this pick, though there were other players I think could have helped us more at that spot. Shannon might catch on and be a rotation player someday.

So at the end of Day One, I was feeling we had maybe a C grade, or incomplete. One move I disliked but am being wait-and-see, and one that was OK but not a homerun by any means.

Day Two began with us trading our #26 2022 pick Wendell Moore Jr and our 2024 #37 pick to Detroit for the #53 2024 pick. Yes, read that again: we traded away a former 1st rounder and a good 2nd rounder for a worse 2nd rounder. Moore's $2.5 million guaranteed salary would have cost the Wolves something like $11-12 million, and the guy could never crack the rotation at all. He was a literal non-player. That's a lot to spend on a guy you don't think can play. So the trade was made purely to rid ourselves of that financial obligation. We gave a nice 2nd rounder for the favor of Detroit taking away Moore.

Then we traded away #53 for #57, which we also traded away for TBD. So we used #37 as a way to remove salary and avoid adding talent.

I get the financial stuff, because as I outlined above, we're in deep trouble because of it. However, the addition of Rob Dillingham's $13 million starting salary means we're going to be paying something like $50 million for him. Fifty-million dollars in one year is a LOT for "he might turn out to be as good as Lou Williams someday"!

Had we stood pat, we could have taken Shannon (or Baylor Scheierman, Johnny Furphy, Tyler Kolek, or several other guys I preferred) and another decent prospect such as Bobi Klintman, Nikola Djurisic, KJ Simpson, etc., at 37. It would have been a boring draft, but one that saved us money and brought in prospects I'd call just as good as the ones we had to spend dearly to get.

[Kapitan]

The draft is just behind us, and free agency begins today.

The biggest name truly out there (Lebron James is technically out there, but it's all but a done deal that he's just going to re-sign with the Lakers, who, after all, did just draft his son for him!) is Paul George, and he's taking meetings with the Los Angeles Clippers (from whom he just opted out), the Orlando Magic, and Sheriff John Stone's Philadelphia 76ers. Orlando is interesting, but I suspect the 76ers are the favorites. Considering the Clippers wouldn't offer him what he was seeking on an extension, it seems hard to imagine he'd return there now.

The Wolves, hindered by their second-apron tax status, can't really do anything. They could re-sign their own free agents like Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, and Jordan McLaughlin, but especially the former two are probably cost prohibitive anyway. (Anderson is coming off a 2-year, $18 million deal. That $9 million a year would cost us something like $40 million a year because of the tax. Pretty steep for a rotation player.) We'll likely be picking up minimum-contract guys and hoping for the best.

Sometimes vets who have already made their money sign with contenders for bargains. Unfortunately that happens most in warm-weather states, especially Texas and Florida (which have no state income tax). So Minnesota doesn't exactly fit that model. But we'll see, perhaps we'll get lucky.

[Sheriff John Stone]

I've been following the Paul George scenario on 94WIP sports radio in Philadelphia. From what I'm hearing, the Sixers are very interested in George because they are "all in" for THIS SEASON. Forget The Process, they want to win a championship now! Joel Embiid is 30 years old now (hard to believe) and they feel that his days/years in Philly are numbered - at least peak, healthy years. However, from what I hear, it's Paul George who isn't sold on the 76ers. I have no idea if that's true. One day it appears a deal is still on, then the next day it's off. I'm not totally excited by the prospect (George is old and somewhat injury prone), but it would certainly make for an interesting 2024-25 season.

[Kapitan]

Yeah, Paul George is a lot like Joel Embiid for me, in that I love watching him play ... but too often, he's not playing. It would be a huge risk to give him a max contract for 3-4 years only to see him hurt for half the season. Last year's 74 games were the most he had played since 2018-19. Would the pairing really be a pairing, or would one (or both) of those two be hurt as often as not? 

Still, Maxey, George, Embiid ... THAT'S a big three!

[Sheriff John Stone]

Well, hey, all it cost was money...$212,000,000 

[Kapitan]

The reports were always that George was upset LAC wouldn't give him four years guaranteed. (Honestly I don't blame them: a guaranteed 4-year max deal for an injury-prone 34-year-old?) Well, Philly gave him that 4th year. I really hope he and Embiid both stay healthy. It's just not as fun to see NBA seasons determined by injuries.

But I have to admit, watching these contract values skyrocket is mind-boggling!