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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Jul 27, 2023 18:35:56 GMT
Hey, Cincinnati and Central Florida have had more success over the past decade than most of the remaining Big 12 schools! I was rooting against the Colorado add, if only because there's no historical connection to Cincinnati and they've been pretty mediocre for a long time. Seems like the next logical move would be to add Arizona. In addition to that, there's also the thought of adding Arizona State and Utah, whom I couldn't care less about. I still miss the days of regularly playing Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and UCONN. Memphis too, but there's an outside shot they get added if no further Pac 12 schools leave.
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Post by Kapitan on Jul 27, 2023 18:49:11 GMT
Oh, I don't dispute the logic for the B12ish of adding those programs. They'll help make up for what they've lost. I just hate the lack of regional and traditional ties.
I have heard Arizona is the most likely target--along with UCONN, of all places--for the B12 next. Meanwhile Washington and Oregon both are pretty openly campaigning to bolt to the Big 10 (which would be 18 teams?). Insane. And that would leave the Pac...6?
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Jul 27, 2023 19:50:54 GMT
At that point you'd have to wonder if they'd add a bunch of (relatively) random G5 schools or have some kind of merger with the MWC.
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Post by Kapitan on Jul 27, 2023 19:58:53 GMT
At that point you'd have to wonder if they'd add a bunch of (relatively) random G5 schools or have some kind of merger with the MWC. Or look to pilfer other major conferences, if situations were to arise. The geogaphic reach would be silly trying to take from either the B10, B12, SEC, or whatever, but it has been silly with those conferences taking from the PAC12, too. I'll say this now: I guarantee the Big 10 won't sustain an 18-team conference from New Jersey and Maryland to southern California. It's not going to happen. The league will split in two, or mutate into something else, or lose members. Too many schools, too rigorous travel, too different schools, and of course other leagues will always be looking to steal them. Just think about the budgets for these athletic departments! Yes, I know they have media deal cash, but they'd each be using that to support, what, 20-something programs (men and women)? At most schools, somewhere between 0-2 teams are revenue generators: football and men's basketball. This is not going to be the utopia anyone thinks.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Jul 27, 2023 20:12:47 GMT
At that point you'd have to wonder if they'd add a bunch of (relatively) random G5 schools or have some kind of merger with the MWC. Or look to pilfer other major conferences, if situations were to arise. The geogaphic reach would be silly trying to take from either the B10, B12, SEC, or whatever, but it has been silly with those conferences taking from the PAC12, too. I'll say this now: I guarantee the Big 10 won't sustain an 18-team conference from New Jersey and Maryland to southern California. It's not going to happen. The league will split in two, or mutate into something else, or lose members. Too many schools, too rigorous travel, too different schools, and of course other leagues will always be looking to steal them. Just think about the budgets for these athletic departments! Yes, I know they have media deal cash, but they'd each be using that to support, what, 20-something programs (men and women)? At most schools, somewhere between 0-2 teams are revenue generators: football and men's basketball. This is not going to be the utopia anyone thinks. I've always said that the next round of realignment will be geography based, but now there could be consolidation as well. It may come as a result of streaming not being as profitable as the cable model is/was and ADs will be wanting to save money. I expect it will happen after the ACC's grant of rights expires in 2036. There's a number of teams in that conference that would love to be in the SEC or B1G, and either conference would be glad to have them. There's a lot of different scenarios I could ramble on about.
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Post by Kapitan on Jul 27, 2023 20:22:51 GMT
I'd love to hear them! But as for 2036, I actually don't think the NCAA will exist as we know it by then. I think it is too big a headache for power conferences, or really power programs. I suspect we'll either see:
- A new entity formed and run by the true power programs (primarily for football and basketball) that leans much more toward a youth-pro model, with the left-behinds working under an NCAA structure that probably is more befitting amateur athletics in universities; or
- A massively revamped NCAA that more or less does that same thing, maybe adding a new division to the current I, II, III hierarchy, with the new DI being basically that pro model.
Regardless, the power programs are going to devise their own media contracts, their own revenue sharing models, their own promotional campaigns, and of course, their own rules (and lack of same) to do away with those pesky violations. The current structure is just too obviously irrelevant to continue.
However, I could also see the power programs collapsing somewhat economically on their own, because I think the universities themselves are almost as much of a house of cards as are the athletic programs.
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Post by Kapitan on Jul 28, 2023 17:53:49 GMT
OK, I need to stop reading about realignment, because this ESPN article about the ACC says they've been looking at schools for possible expansion, with two such schools being Oregon and Washington (also strongly connected to Big Ten expansion in other rumors). So the ATLANTIC COAST Conference is interested in schools in Eugene, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington? That feels about 2,800 miles off to me...
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Jul 28, 2023 18:48:02 GMT
I'd love to hear them! But as for 2036, I actually don't think the NCAA will exist as we know it by then. I think it is too big a headache for power conferences, or really power programs. I suspect we'll either see: - A new entity formed and run by the true power programs (primarily for football and basketball) that leans much more toward a youth-pro model, with the left-behinds working under an NCAA structure that probably is more befitting amateur athletics in universities; or - A massively revamped NCAA that more or less does that same thing, maybe adding a new division to the current I, II, III hierarchy, with the new DI being basically that pro model. Regardless, the power programs are going to devise their own media contracts, their own revenue sharing models, their own promotional campaigns, and of course, their own rules (and lack of same) to do away with those pesky violations. The current structure is just too obviously irrelevant to continue. However, I could also see the power programs collapsing somewhat economically on their own, because I think the universities themselves are almost as much of a house of cards as are the athletic programs. I think a lot of that may come to fruition. One of my thoughts is four power conferences with 20 teams each with a national TV deal. The problem with that is some teams get left out that are currently in. Either they would essentially be D2 with their own playoff, or possibly the top team gets thrown in as a wild card of sorts in the P4 playoff. Either way, some teams have been coasting far too long on the coattails of the rest of their respective conferences (Vanderbilt and Rutgers come to mind).
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Post by Kapitan on Aug 4, 2023 12:51:40 GMT
And it goes on... Arizona is expected to finalize a deal to join the Big 12, leaving the Pac 12 with just eight teams; and the Big Ten is formally exploring the additions of Oregon and Washington (which have both been rumored to be on the way in since the announcements of USC and UCLA joining). So ... the Pac 6? At this point, it feels less like they would be adding Mountain West or WAC schools, and more like the Mountain West or WAC might be adding former Pac schools.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Aug 4, 2023 14:55:42 GMT
Now there's talk of the remaining teams staying together and evening signing a grant of rights. Should be an interesting day.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Aug 4, 2023 16:23:58 GMT
Turns out that was short lived and we're back on PAC-x deathwatch.
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Post by Kapitan on Aug 4, 2023 17:12:14 GMT
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Aug 4, 2023 20:09:30 GMT
I saw a comment that said the B1G should add four PAC schools and have two divisions of 10. One called Big 10 and the other PAC 10. The two divisional champions would play the championship at the Rose Bowl. I really believe we'll go back to more geographical conferences in some way once everything settles down. Even if it's like the scenario above.
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Post by Kapitan on Aug 4, 2023 20:24:53 GMT
I saw a comment that said the B1G should add four PAC schools and have two divisions of 10. One called Big 10 and the other PAC 10. The two divisional champions would play the championship at the Rose Bowl. I really believe we'll go back to more geographical conferences in some way once everything settles down. Even if it's like the scenario above. That is hilarious--and preferable! I do hope things go back to a geographical footprint, but I'd assume it'll be a ways off, considering the various deals in place. Also, do you think the conferences who decided to use numbers in their names (Bigs and Pac) are regretting those choices? Big East, ACC, SEC, and the lesser conferences all have the benefit of brand continuity without internal incoherence thanks to their numbers. Well, actually, check that. East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern are all questionable with some of their member schools, too...
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Aug 5, 2023 21:10:05 GMT
I saw a comment that said the B1G should add four PAC schools and have two divisions of 10. One called Big 10 and the other PAC 10. The two divisional champions would play the championship at the Rose Bowl. I really believe we'll go back to more geographical conferences in some way once everything settles down. Even if it's like the scenario above. That is hilarious--and preferable! I do hope things go back to a geographical footprint, but I'd assume it'll be a ways off, considering the various deals in place. Also, do you think the conferences who decided to use numbers in their names (Bigs and Pac) are regretting those choices? Big East, ACC, SEC, and the lesser conferences all have the benefit of brand continuity without internal incoherence thanks to their numbers. Well, actually, check that. East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern are all questionable with some of their member schools, too... I'm not sure they care too much. All of the names have brand equity and nobody ever wants to give that up (well, the Big East actually did in exchange for a big payday).
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