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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 11:38:31 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 11, 2019 11:38:31 GMT
Yes, the history of the draft shows all kinds of mistakes and great finds. Going back I think one year further than you did (maybe two) you get to Manu Ginobili, I think the last pick!
But it isn't fair to put all the blame (or credit) on teams, either. Obviously these are all fluid situations, with people involved. People who might work hard or might see getting drafted as having "made it." They might improve further or regress. They might mesh with coaching staffs and teammates or might not. The systems into which they are thrust might complement them or might not.
Regardless, looking through high picks who don't make it, and lower picks who do, is very instructive.
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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 12:49:37 GMT
Post by Sheriff John Stone on Apr 11, 2019 12:49:37 GMT
I've been diving into strange corners of basketball-reference.com the past hour or so, and somehow got to the 2014 NBA Draft, which is guys who have (generally) just finished their fifth seasons, and probably more or less are who they are. For fun, I have sorted the players from that draft by PPG. Here are the leaders, in descending order, with their draft position noted.
1. Joel Embiid (3), 24.3 ppg 2. Andrew Wiggins (1), 19.4 3. Nikola Jokic (41), 16.2 4. Zach LaVine (13), 16.1 5. Julius Randle (7), 15.4 6. Jabari Parker (2), 15.1 7. Jordan Clarkson (46), 14.7 8. TJ Warren (14), 14.4 9. Bogdan Bogdanovic (27), 12.9 10. Dario Saric (12), 12.7
11. Rodney Hood (23), 12.6 12. Aaron Gordon (4), 12.4 13. Gary Harris (14), 12.4 14. Clint Capela (25), 12.0 15. Jusuf Nurkic (16), 11.6 16. Elfrid Payton (10), 11.1 17. Spencer Dinwiddie (38), 11.0 18. Joe Harris (33), 9.4 19. Marcus Smart (6), 9.3 20. Jerami Grant (39), 8.7
It's always fun to look back at performance compared to projections, because most of us look at top-5 picks, lottery picks, first-rounders, etc., and think that's a sure-thing all-star, a sure-thing starter, etc. But realistically that just doesn't happen.
7 of the top 10 picks end up in the top 20 scorers (meaning 13 of the top 20 scorers were NOT in the top 10 picks) 5 second-rounders are among the top 20 scorers (two of them among the top 7!) 6 of the top 10 scorers were picked outside the top 10 (outside the top 12, actually)
a) has it been 5 years already? b) I thought there would be more 20+ ppg scorers c) yes, second rounderss have to be taken more seriously; they are not just "throw-ins" in trades
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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 13:00:15 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 11, 2019 13:00:15 GMT
The idea that there will be more 20 ppg scorers is probably the biggest fallacy. I know casual fans who, when the Wolves have picked, say, late lottery, assume that guy will have a legit shot at being a top scorer, say, 17-21 ppg or so. That almost NEVER happens!
In the late 00s, I did a ridiculously tedious analysis of players (with at least 5 years of experience, to ensure they became who they would become) by pick. If I recall correctly, no pick--not even the #1 pick--averaged 20 ppg, though the average best season of the #1 picks was over 20 ppg. (I did both career averages, and average "best" seasons, as subjectively decided by me.) By the time you're around the 5th pick, they averaged something like 13 ppg. By 10, they don't average double figures.
But also, yes, it has been five years! Time flies. (I think that every time I remember guys I enjoyed watching in college ... and now watch their children play in the NBA. Glenn Robinson III, Tim Hardaway Jr, Andrew Wiggins, Jaren Jackson Jr, Devin Booker, Jerami and Jerian Grant, to name a few.)
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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 17:38:35 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 11, 2019 17:38:35 GMT
Woj reported that Vlade Divac is planning to fire (Minnesota native) Dave Joerger and his staff. Some reward for coaching up what has been an abysmal franchise for the past decade...
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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 21:03:07 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 11, 2019 21:03:07 GMT
The firings continue: JB Bickerstaff (U of MN alum and former Wolves assistant--bad day for Minnesotans!) was fired by Memphis. I thought he actually did a great job this season with a poorly built roster to begin with, then injuries, then trades that left him with basically a D-League team toward the end of the year.
I expect him to take an assistant job next, since he's no longer a hot new thing and doesn't have the resume of a top tier coach, either. But he's got a great basketball mind. His dad, Bernie, was a great coach, and JB always saw the game. (He was actually a great point forward type, could really pass the ball, but leg injuries while in MN ruined his future. He had been a legit NBA prospect as a player.)
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NBA
Apr 11, 2019 23:29:25 GMT
Post by Sheriff John Stone on Apr 11, 2019 23:29:25 GMT
And the one who was expected to go first, Luke Walton, is still standing!
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NBA
Apr 12, 2019 13:03:30 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 12, 2019 13:03:30 GMT
Though it seems he still could be let go. There are also rumors that Lakers GM Rob Pelinka could go, which (according to unnamed sources around the league) would be very popular with other front offices. Apparently Mr. Pelinka isn't exactly a pleasure to work with.
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NBA
Apr 12, 2019 20:18:39 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 12, 2019 20:18:39 GMT
And the one who was expected to go first, Luke Walton, is still standing! So much for that. He's out. Ty Lue is "considered a strong frontrunner" for the job, which is a joke.
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 14:03:19 GMT
Post by Sheriff John Stone on Apr 13, 2019 14:03:19 GMT
And the one who was expected to go first, Luke Walton, is still standing! So much for that. He's out. Ty Lue is "considered a strong frontrunner" for the job, which is a joke. The Luke Walton saga is a fascinating one.
First, one could question if he even deserved the Lakers' head coaching job. You and I could've coached the Golden State Warrior team that he "inherited" when Steve Kerr was out for a few months. Second, what if his last name was Walker instead of Walton? And, third, was he really "a Laker"? He's one player from the old Lakers' teams that doesn't usually come to mind when I think of their tradition. But, hey, that's the way it works in the NBA and pro sports and I get it.
And now he's fired. But one might question that, despite all of the things I just wrote, he didn't really get a fair shake. What did he get, two years? Is that long enough to make your mark? For a young coach with little head coaching experience? With the myriad of injuries and questionable roster transactions? With all of the daily insanity that surrounds The Lakers? But, hey, that's the way it works in the NBA and pro sports.
So, who is the winner here? I'm sure Luke Walton never expected things to go this way or end so...abruptly. Did the Lakers realize that they made a mistake and got out of the situation as quickly and painlessly as possible? Luke Walton will be just fine. And, while it might take a little longer, so will the Lakers.
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 15:40:44 GMT
Post by B.E. on Apr 13, 2019 15:40:44 GMT
Prediction time. I've got GSW (4-0), HOU (4-2), OKC (4-2), SAS (4-2), MIL (4-0), BOS (4-1), PHI (4-2), and TOR (4-1) advancing to the semifinals. Then I've got GSW defeating HOU (4-2), OKC defeating SAS (4-2), MIL defeating BOS (4-3), and TOR defeating PHI (4-2). Then GSW defeating OKC (4-1) and TOR defeating MIL (4-2). Then I've got GSW defeating TOR (4-3).
I'm most unsure about DEN, SAS, and OKC. One of these three teams will lose to GS in the conference finals. It could be either one. Obviously, being a fan, I'm a little extra optimistic that SA will beat DEN, but I could also see them losing in 5.
In the east, I'm giving BKN an extra game due to Embiid's doubtful injury status. The most fascinating series for me are GSW-HOU and MIL-TOR. If HOU wins, then the finals will be even more interesting. I'll be rooting for MIL to win the East, but I think their lack of experience and injuries may be too much to overcome against TOR.
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 19:40:34 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 13, 2019 19:40:34 GMT
I think Luke Walton seems like a good coach. He understood the court in the same way his dad did, he was well coached through his career, and he seems to have the mindset to allow himself to put himself below those more prominent (and wealthy, and secure) players for the good of the team even as he designs it all. That said, was he overrated coming off that great Golden State run? Hard to say, but maybe.
The Lakers franchise is a joke, which is unfortunate. But really it hasn't been well run in almost a decade. If they go the "appease Lebron at all costs" route, they will mortgage their future yet again, maybe win or compete for a title in the short term but invite yet another rebuild afterward, the same kind of project that Lebron has in his wake a couple of times already.
Walton may well end up in Sacramento, which reportedly contacted him to request an interview within hours of his being fired. That franchise (speaking of poorly run jokes) has a lot going for it right now in terms of young talent and financial flexibility. I wouldn't mind being in charge of a roster with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Harry Giles, Marvin Bagley, etc.
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 19:42:34 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 13, 2019 19:42:34 GMT
Prediction time. I've got GSW (4-0), HOU (4-2), OKC (4-2), SAS (4-2), MIL (4-0), BOS (4-1), PHI (4-2), and TOR (4-1) advancing to the semifinals. Then I've got GSW defeating HOU (4-2), OKC defeating SAS (4-2), MIL defeating BOS (4-3), and TOR defeating PHI (4-2). Then GSW defeating OKC (4-1) and TOR defeating MIL (4-2). Then I've got GSW defeating TOR (4-3). I'm most unsure about DEN, SAS, and OKC. One of these three teams will lose to GS in the conference finals. It could be either one. Obviously, being a fan, I'm a little extra optimistic that SA will beat DEN, but I could also see them losing in 5. In the east, I'm giving BKN an extra game due to Embiid's doubtful injury status. The most fascinating series for me are GSW-HOU and MIL-TOR. If HOU wins, then the finals will be even more interesting. I'll be rooting for MIL to win the East, but I think their lack of experience and injuries may be too much to overcome against TOR. I'm more or less out of the predictions game (since I can't stand to lose money gambling and am just wrong too much!), but I will say I hope to see Houston lose asap. Great as Harden is individually and as much as I've liked Mike D'Antoni over the years, I mostly despise watching them play.
It's a shame that we're probably looking at a few rounds without OG Anunoby in Toronto or Marcus Smart in Boston due to injuries. Those two matter, too, though they aren't among the first couple guys mentioned on either team.
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 21:41:33 GMT
Post by Kapitan on Apr 13, 2019 21:41:33 GMT
Poor SJS! A handful of castoffs beat the talented 76ers: D'Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Ed Davis, and the not castoff but certainly not highly regarded Caris LeVert. Not that I expect Philly to shoot so poorly again. But Game One goes to the underdogs!
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NBA
Apr 13, 2019 22:35:49 GMT
Post by Sheriff John Stone on Apr 13, 2019 22:35:49 GMT
Prediction time. I've got GSW (4-0), HOU (4-2), OKC (4-2), SAS (4-2), MIL (4-0), BOS (4-1), PHI (4-2), and TOR (4-1) advancing to the semifinals. Then I've got GSW defeating HOU (4-2), OKC defeating SAS (4-2), MIL defeating BOS (4-3), and TOR defeating PHI (4-2). Then GSW defeating OKC (4-1) and TOR defeating MIL (4-2). Then I've got GSW defeating TOR (4-3). I'm most unsure about DEN, SAS, and OKC. One of these three teams will lose to GS in the conference finals. It could be either one. Obviously, being a fan, I'm a little extra optimistic that SA will beat DEN, but I could also see them losing in 5. In the east, I'm giving BKN an extra game due to Embiid's doubtful injury status. The most fascinating series for me are GSW-HOU and MIL-TOR. If HOU wins, then the finals will be even more interesting. I'll be rooting for MIL to win the East, but I think their lack of experience and injuries may be too much to overcome against TOR. I predict the 76ers will lose the first game against Brooklyn. Seriously, I think the Sixers are in trouble. It's not just Embiid's health, but they just can't stop anybody. They play terrible team defense.
B.E., I'd like to disagree with your predictions just for conversation sake, but I mostly agree with you. How about I predict that Brooklyn wins the series against Philadelphia and Indiana makes the Boston series a little closer. Maybe Detroit will win a game but that's nit-picking.
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NBA
Apr 17, 2019 13:42:03 GMT
B.E. likes this
Post by Sheriff John Stone on Apr 17, 2019 13:42:03 GMT
There's a big story coming out of Philadelphia today about The 76ers.
Apparently, Elton Brand wanted to trade Ben Simmons because he is an uncoachable "prima donna" who parties too much and actually missed a game because of it. Elton was overruled by management.
Coach Brett Brown invited his ex-player, Bruce Bowen, to a team meeting for a motivational talk. Apparently Bowen said some things to Joel Embiid that Embiid took exception to and went face-to-face with Bowen. Rumors are that Bowen was dead on with what he had to say.
And, finally, there are increasing rumors that Brett Brown has lost control of the team and the players are not responding to his coaching and doing whatever they want.
Stay tuned.
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