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Post by Kapitan on Sept 2, 2021 17:12:06 GMT
The talented Gophers football team looking to bounce back to 2019 form after an abbreviated, injury-plagued and COVID-ravaged 2020, opens the season tonight by hosting conference rival and national powerhouse Ohio State.
Talk about a tough opening game! Whatever happened to starting each season against the likes of Southeast Iowa Technical College or whatever? It's nice to see what you're working with and build a little conference before diving into the deep end.
The Gophers are 14-point underdogs. Part of me thinks we have a real chance to compete, but I'm trying to just take it as it comes and hope it's a good game.
Just learned this game will be nationally televised (Fox)! The whole country gets to watch Minnesota ... man, that really brings out my pessimism. First thought: Minnesota teams always choke when the stage is biggest! But PJ Fleck's teams so far have fared better than typical MN teams, winning several bowl games.
Why am I nervous? All I have to do is watch...
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 2, 2021 21:38:11 GMT
Speaking of Cincinnati (as The Cincinnati Kid was earlier), they are reportedly one of four programs the Big 12 is looking at for expansion as they lose Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Per Adam Rittenberg and Heather Dinch, both of ESPN, the programs are BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Sept 2, 2021 22:34:10 GMT
Speaking of Cincinnati (as The Cincinnati Kid was earlier), they are reportedly one of four programs the Big 12 is looking at for expansion as they lose Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Per Adam Rittenberg and Heather Dinch, both of ESPN, the programs are BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston. It's really exciting to think that we might finally get into a P5 conference 10 years after being left behind. That said, it would be a little bitter sweet as the AAC has been improving nearly every year. The increase in money and exposure will be well worth it, though.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 2, 2021 22:55:30 GMT
I think it's a little awkward of a fit for the B12, or at least I should say the traditional B8/12. Historically you were looking at mostly the lower half or two-thirds of the central part of the country, and land-grant universities. (I know with schools like Baylor and TCU, they are obviously already out of that landscape.)
Cincinnati is to the northeast, it's an urban university, its football is certainly not historically a good match, though I know expectations are higher there now. Houston is in the right region, but of course that's also an urban school. (It was a part of the old Southwest Conference that was raided by the Big 8 to make the Big 12, though. So there are old relationships there.) BYU is private and to the west. UCF is a huge public research university, but it's WAY out of the traditional footprint and, if anything, belongs in the ACC or SEC.
I know the traditional regional footprints matter less and less, but to me, they were one of the keys to conferences making sense. As more diverse schools from all over the country align in conferences, to me it just makes conferences bland and meaningless.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 3, 2021 11:38:50 GMT
Tough game. Gophers defense definitely was not up to the task against Ohio State's talented offense, and worst of all, our star running back Mohamed Ibrahim left the game in the second half with what I'm guessing was an Achilles injury. If he ruptured it, that's the season for him.
I still think Minnesota could have a decent season--even without Ibrahim--but not a great one.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Sept 3, 2021 12:18:11 GMT
I think it's a little awkward of a fit for the B12, or at least I should say the traditional B8/12. Historically you were looking at mostly the lower half or two-thirds of the central part of the country, and land-grant universities. (I know with schools like Baylor and TCU, they are obviously already out of that landscape.) Cincinnati is to the northeast, it's an urban university, its football is certainly not historically a good match, though I know expectations are higher there now. Houston is in the right region, but of course that's also an urban school. (It was a part of the old Southwest Conference that was raided by the Big 8 to make the Big 12, though. So there are old relationships there.) BYU is private and to the west. UCF is a huge public research university, but it's WAY out of the traditional footprint and, if anything, belongs in the ACC or SEC. I know the traditional regional footprints matter less and less, but to me, they were one of the keys to conferences making sense. As more diverse schools from all over the country align in conferences, to me it just makes conferences bland and meaningless.
Yeah, conference realignment has thrown geography and historic rivalries out the window. In the AAC, UC's closest conference team is Memphis, everyone else is just as far away as the teams in the Big 12. West Virginia would actually be closer and it would bring back a good (but not historic) rivalry. Not to toot my own horn (well, maybe a little), but I predicted the Big 12's contract ending in '25-26 would spark another round of realignment. There are number of TV deals ending in the mid 2030s which I think will spark one final, major round of realignment. I'd expect the Big 12 to be absorbed by the other four power conferences and at that point we might see a national TV deal, which will allow for movement that makes the four conferences more regional again. Time will tell.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Sept 3, 2021 12:21:12 GMT
Tough game. Gophers defense definitely was not up to the task against Ohio State's talented offense, and worst of all, our star running back Mohamed Ibrahim left the game in the second half with what I'm guessing was an Achilles injury. If he ruptured it, that's the season for him. I still think Minnesota could have a decent season--even without Ibrahim--but not a great one.
I was really rooting for you guys since it would help UC's playoff chances. I was starting to get excited, but as you mentioned, Minnesota's defense allowed too many home run type plays. That would really be terrible if Ibrahim's injury is season ending, he was a beast last night.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 3, 2021 12:24:20 GMT
I suspect conferences themselves--as we know them, anyway--are going to fundamentally change. I think we're going to have something more like leagues. Groups of universities whose powerhouse athletic departments individually agree to band together under their own rules, outside of the (increasingly irrelevant) NCAA's jurisdiction. Whether the power conference members end up all joining into a megaleague, or into a few poles of power, I'm not sure.
But I do think it will happen, and it will mark a stark division between the haves and the have-nots. The big leagues will have well compensated athletes in football and basketball, at least (and presumably draw enough revenue from them to fund their other sports). The question in my mind is, is it more likely the resulting landscape will more resemble the NFC and AFC or the NFL and the AFL?
The others might even regress toward something like more traditional college sports with actually amateur student-athletes but a lower level of play and far less money involved.
That's my guess.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 3, 2021 12:26:51 GMT
Tough game. Gophers defense definitely was not up to the task against Ohio State's talented offense, and worst of all, our star running back Mohamed Ibrahim left the game in the second half with what I'm guessing was an Achilles injury. If he ruptured it, that's the season for him. I still think Minnesota could have a decent season--even without Ibrahim--but not a great one.
I was really rooting for you guys since it would help UC's playoff chances. I was starting to get excited, but as you mentioned, Minnesota's defense allowed too many home run type plays. That would really be terrible if Ibrahim's injury is season ending, he was a beast last night. At the end of the first quarter I was pretty depressed that it was over before it began. Then the second quarter and even part of the third, I thought we had a real shot. That just made the collapse that much worse to watch.
When the defensive line pressured Stroud especially in the 2nd quarter, that was when I had some real hope. I figured we couldn't stop their running game because those backs are all so talented. And I knew if Stroud could just stand there and pick us apart, he and those dynamic receivers would do it. But rattling the young man a little? That seemed like a path forward. Unfortunately it was just in that quarter that we did it, and in the end we didn't record a single sack and just one tackle for a loss.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Sept 3, 2021 12:31:18 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if some or even a lot of the have nots drop football. A lot of the current have nots are struggling with revenue aside from just struggling in general. To that point, I expect larger universities (like UC and Ohio State) will absorb the small universities (like Akron, Bowling Green, etc.) and they'll become branch campuses at some point. Some will just shut down altogether.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 3, 2021 12:50:37 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if some or even a lot of the have nots drop football. A lot of the current have nots are struggling with revenue aside from just struggling in general. Or if not drop it, drop it as a real focus and treat it more like everything else: as a sport, not a (theoretically) revenue-driving industry. Because it's REALLY expensive to compete with the big boys, and the odds of a middle-of-the-pack program sustaining those expenses are minimal. It's expensive to fill all those scholarship slots, it's expensive to have a competitive stadium and practice facility, it's expensive to recruit even regionally (much less nationally), etc.
I could definitely imagine a lot more programs going to something like a D2 model, where there are fewer scholarships available, or even D3, where there are none. Conferences become more regional, travel is more often by bus. Recruits mostly come from the area. Half the kids are on partial scholarships or even none.
Honestly I think the football situation is a good symbol of colleges/universities in general as they have shifted in the past 30-40 years to a consumer model with students seen as customers. They spend and spend to attract customers, and then try to promote "value adds" as differentiators. Funds go to programs outside of their core missions. Administrative bureaucracies have outpaced growth of anything else by far. To be what they want to be, they need to spend; and to spend, they need to fundraise. But the actual value of college increasingly isn't as high as the costs.
I realize this is straying way off college sports. But I think our college/university systems probably are due for a serious overhaul. And personally I think the answer at least in part lies in the past. The goal should not be marketing and selling a product that is attractive to student-consumers and basically just serves as a massive fundraising enterprise; it should be a practical value, almost an extension of high school for those students so inclined. Basically, "we don't really care if you 'love it' here ... you know you will benefit from the experience." Dorms, not apartment suites. Dining centers or cafeterias, not food courts with restaurants. Gyms, not high end fitness centers. A school, not a brand.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 6, 2021 20:33:03 GMT
Mohamed Ibrahim left the game in the second half with what I'm guessing was an Achilles injury. If he ruptured it, that's the season for him. Ibrahim is indeed out for the year. While the details haven't been released, it is semi-officially reported as a torn Achilles.
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 10, 2021 14:19:25 GMT
Well, apparently it's all but done: the Big 12 has voted unanimously in favor of adding BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. It seems the vote was timed to happen only after all four schools indicated they indeed wanted to join, so presumably everyone involved is now agreed.
The latter three schools still have to negotiate their exits from the AAC; BYU is an independent and so may be able to join sooner.
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Post by The Cincinnati Kid on Sept 10, 2021 15:04:57 GMT
Five years late, but a great day to be a Bearcat fan!
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Post by Kapitan on Sept 11, 2021 12:25:18 GMT
It's not a surprise--nobody wants to force somebody to stick around when they clearly want to leave--but the AAC is reportedly willing to negotiate an earlier exit than their bylaws allow for departing member Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, who are joining the Big 12.
Under league rules, the schools would each have to pay $10 million and could leave in July 2024. The AAC commissioner is willing to speed that up, for higher fees.
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